Epidemic Situation and Trend of H1N1 Influenza in a City

Case Background

To fully understand the current situation and epidemic trend of H1N1 flu in a city, it establishes a mathematical model based on the current data, so as to estimate the actual number of patients infected with H1N1 flu in the future in a city, and to predict the epidemic trend of the H1N1 flu in the future.

  • H1N1 flu broke out in Mexico in March, 2009, which was then spread globally and caused worldwide panic.
  • In mid-November 2009, the H1N1 flu stayed at its epidemic peak in the mid of November, 2009.

  • Business Objectives

  • Simulate the epidemic trend of H1N1 flu, and predict its development trend
  • Estimate the impact of immune barriers on the of H1N1 flu pandemic

  • Solution

  • Data preparation: Estimate the number of cases by consulting experts to collect the indicators such as the outpatient visit rates, prevalence rate, and screen-positive rate
  • Data modeling: Use SPSS Statistics time series for modeling based on the related data of cases during the period 2009.8.3~ 11.22
  • Output and evaluation of results: Perform evaluation and estimation by using graphical and statistical methods

  • Implementation Result

    The H1N1 flu in this city has gone through the peak period, which showed a significant decline trend.


    Chart for Prediction of Cases with Vaccination

    As shown in the prediction data: after the large-scale vaccination, the number of cases infected with H1N1 flu will be decreased more significantly.

    After the flu vaccine policy is implemented in this city, it will significantly reduce the infection rate of the H1N1 flu, which could achieve significant effect.

    Chart for Prediction of Cases with/without Vaccination



  • The green line indicates the estimated number of cases infected with H1N1 flu after vaccination.
  • The red line indicates the estimated number of cases infected with H1N1 flu without the influence of vaccination.


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